The “What Ifs?” of Science Fiction

If someone were to ask people who have one way or another made a career out of science or technology what they read in their childhood, the chances are very good that the common thread would be science fiction. I read a lot of things when I was a kid, but my most beloved book in second grade was a tome called Rusty’s Space Ship, which I read in its entirety a number of times that surely contains two digits. I won’t bore you with the plot line. Suffice it to say that it involves travel across the solar system by a boy and a girl by unlikely means with an unlikely alien companion, and that it expresses rather well the endemic sexism of the 1950s. A little later, Tom Corbett and his space cadet pals Roger and Astro displaced Rusty and Susie in my affections, and they were in turn followed by Robert Heinlein, Isaac Asimov and Arthur C. Clarke.

The genre is often dismissed as trash, and indeed there is plenty of evidence to support that. But there are a lot of trashy novels written about rich people and doomed romances too, and that doesn’t make The Great Gatsby trash. Any good novel, it seems to me, is an attempt to explore the human condition, to look at how we live our lives, to ask: What If? What if a French wife decided her life needed the excitement of an affair to relieve the boredom of provincial life? How might that play out? What if we put a poor white kid and a runaway slave on a raft and float them down the antebellum Mississippi River? What might that tell us about America? What if time travel were possible?

People who don’t really understand science fiction often speak of its power to predict the future, when in fact it is usually really bad at doing so. My hero Robert Heinlein, from whom I learned about orbital mechanics in The Rolling Stones, has his space travelers figuring their trajectory with slide rules! So much for predictive power.

It is that stretching of the imagination in the “what ifs” of science fiction that inspired so many of us. Particularly in so-called “hard” (scientifically plausible if not yet achievable) science fiction, many of us first saw possibilities that intrigued us. The exploration and eventual settling of the solar system has been an enduring interest of mine, from Rusty and Susie through Tom Corbett and the traveling Stone family of Heinlein.

Which brings me to the fiction of Kim Stanley Robinson. He is best known for his Mars trilogy (Red Mars, Green Mars, Blue Mars), which describes 200 years of future human history on the planet. His most recent book is 2312, in a world where the solar system is mostly settled and Earth is devastated by global climate change. It is a rich interweaving of sociology, economics, psychology and the “hard” sciences that I consumed over the holidays.

I have not made a book recommendation in this blog before, and I don’t intend to make a habit of it. I can only tell you that this reader, who loves both Anna Karenina and Time For the Stars, found it satisfying both as science and as literature. And if you think all science fiction is trash, I offer this as strong evidence to the contrary.

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Meteor Musings

Everyone responds to tragedies like the recent horror in Connecticut in a different way, each of us seeking comfort where we can find it. There is no real sense to be made of the evil that slaughters six and seven year old children. Solace is hard to come by.

In recent years, I have come to find at least some comfort under a quiet and clear night sky. It isn’t that the stars themselves are comforting me—they are after all indifferent to humans and to human destinies. It isn’t entirely because they seem timeless, although that is part of it. They aren’t really eternal. They too will die and pass from the scene, but when considered next to the puny lifespans of humans measured in decades, they might as well be eternal. No, it is some combination of that calm indifference and what-amounts-to immortality that is strangely reassuring.

The night before the events in Newtown, I put on some warm clothes at 3:30 a.m. and stepped outside to look for some Geminid meteors. A pleasant stream of consciousness accompanied the vigil, everything from gratitude for the warm gloves my wife had bought for me when I first began spending long nights at the Belk Observatory to idle wondering if Betelgeuse was close enough to do damage to the Earth when it eventually goes supernova (it isn’t). The meteors I saw were bright with short trails, all rather close to the radiant (the area in the sky from which they appear to originate) and I began picturing the geometry that led to that. In the early morning, the Earth is running into the bits of cosmic debris that cause meteors. Before midnight, that debris has to catch up to the Earth.

It seemed to me, or at least to my sleep-dulled mind, that head-on collisions might lead to shorter trails. The meteors were coming at a satisfying pace. At one point I saw three within five minutes of each other, and I decided to go in once I had hit double digits. A streak at the edge of my vision: meteor or not? Nah—don’t count it. The tenth meteor left a bright and silent trace against the void, and I went in. Ten (maybe eleven) in thirty minutes—nothing spectacular but quite nice just the same.

The same stars that I saw that night shone down on Galileo and Kepler, on Julius Caesar and Jesus, on Socrates and Aristotle, on Neanderthals huddled around a campfire. With only a few differences that you would have to search for, the same stars shone down on dinosaurs the night before a meteor ended their dominance among Earth’s large land animals and allowed mammals, and eventually humans, to emerge. I know that many people find that contemplation of the vastness of time and space makes them feel quite insignificant. It doesn’t do that for me. It makes me feel very humble, yes. But I marvel at the fact that the three or so pounds of organic stuff between my ears can take this in, can realize that what I am seeing is not small lights a few miles above me, but vast nuclear-fueled fires at unimaginable distances, that I can run through some of those nuclear reactions in my head, can think about what it is that will trigger Betelgeuse’s eventual and inevitable demise, can understand and appreciate what countless other similar bits of organic stuff have learned about the universe. And yes, I think about those ancients who gazed up at these lights in wonder, and I am grateful for the understanding we have gained. How much more marvelous is this reality than any imagined cosmos!

The evil in our world is very real. But there is solace to be had in contemplation of things that are far beyond us, and will outlive us by eons. From the introduction to the much-loved Burnham’s Celestial Handbook: “Contemporary civilization, whatever its advantages and achievements, is characterized by many features which are, to put it very mildly, disquieting; to turn from this increasingly artificial and strangely alien world is to escape from unreality; to return to the timeless world of the mountains, the sea, the forest, and the stars is to return to sanity and truth.”

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Astronomical Travel

Most of the time astronomy is not a hobby that requires extensive travel. All that is usually required is a clear sky and the curiosity to actually look up into the heavens where wonders abound. Perhaps a little attention to the patterns one sees is helpful as well. The moon passes through its phases, and any given phase of the moon will rise and set at the same time of day. The same stars appear in the midnight sky at the same time of year for any given location. The planets go through their own cycles of appearance and disappearance too, although their patterns are more complex.

It’s true that your location makes a difference in what you see. Traveling to the southern hemisphere can be disorienting for someone who has spent his life north of the equator. When you face toward the sun, it moves from right to left during the day instead of from left to right! Orion is upside down! But the glorious objects that are visible only from these latitudes more than make up for the temporary confusion. Our nearest stellar neighbor Alpha Centauri is easy to pick out next to Omega Centauri, a huge globular cluster that puts the northern hemisphere’s M13 to shame.  The Magellanic Clouds, small galactic companions to our Milky Way, grace the skies. And the center of the Milky Way itself is overhead in the summer, surrounded by numerous star clusters and nebulae visible even to the naked eye.

You do have to travel to a very specific location to see a total solar eclipse. These occur at very specific (and predictable) times and in very specific (and equally predictable) places. The path of the August 2017 eclipse for which those of us in the United States will NOT have to travel far is here.

In 2009 my wife and I were fortunate enough to see a total solar eclipse from the southern hemisphere. I figured that if the eclipse itself was clouded out, we would still have a wonderful vacation! As it happened, the eclipse was visible all through totality. I have never witnessed any natural spectacle more awe-inspiring. I’ve since been amused by those who laugh at the fear these events inspired in ancient people who did not know they were coming. Our ship full of astronomy enthusiasts who were aboard precisely because we DID know it was coming was reduced to a pack of gibbering idiots. You would have thought we had our champagne before the event, not after. My wife took a picture that was actually featured on the web page of Astronomy Magazine.

Unless you live at a considerably higher latitude than I would ever consider as a permanent home, you also have to travel to see the northern lights in their full glory. My wife and I intend to do that next April. We will travel to Iceland, where our chances are very good (but not 100%) of seeing a spectacular display. Even if we do not, this is also an interesting place to be, especially for someone interested in geology. Iceland sits atop the mid-Atlantic ridge, where the earth is pulling apart, and is aptly called the land of fire and ice. I’ll have more to say about the phenomenon of aurorae as the time approaches. In the meantime, enjoy this gorgeous video from Finland for a taste of what we hope to see!

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Survivor

The formation of our solar system, with multiple planets and other bodies of varying sizes and compositions—this was not a simple process. The more planetary systems we discover around other stars, the more we confirm the truth of this. Scientists are still working out the details of exactly why we have a system that has been remarkably stable over billions of years, with small and rocky terrestrial planets clustered near the Sun, and larger gaseous giant planets much farther away.

With only one example at hand, it was easy to tell ourselves that our system was the norm. Yet ground-based observations combined with results from the Kepler Space Telescope have shown us that solar systems come in a bewildering variety of patterns: “hot Jupiters” with giant planets orbiting in scorchingly close orbits their home stars, planets orbiting multiple stars (see below), and planets of very different compositions orbiting very close to each other. We seem to have just about every possible variation.
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Will Curiosity Find Life On Mars?

Well, probably not like this.

But it does carry instrumentation designed to look for biosignatures, evidence that simple microbial life may have existed at some point in the Martian past, even if it no longer does so.
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Once In A Blue Moon

I must confess that I am puzzled by people who ask me if I am excited about a “blue moon”—commonly understood to mean a second full moon in the same calendar month. It’s nice and big and bright, but it means the worst possible conditions for stargazing. The full moon is so bright that it washes out most anything else in the sky, it’s in the sky all night long, and it’s not even a good time to look at the moon itself. With the sun shining directly down on the center of the moon’s visible face, the illumination is flat. There are no shadows, and therefore no easy way to see height variations in lunar topography. To me, the ideal time to view the moon is when it is in the first quarter phase, half-illuminated and high in the southern sky at sunset.
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Neil Armstrong (1930-2012)

Anyone above the age of 50 remembers where they were when Neil Armstrong took his famous one small step on the moon. It was the culmination of an age-old dream, to fly through the sky and to set foot on another world. It seemed to belong entirely to the realm of fantasy to many adults of my early childhood. Inspired as I was by the visions of Wernher von Braun, illustrated beautifully by Chesley Bonestell, I was telling people when I was five or six that I wanted to go to the moon someday. An indulgent chuckle was the common response.

But just a few years later, it was the decadal goal of a young American president. There is no doubt that the moon race was driven by Cold War competition with the old Soviet Union, and that it was meant to show the superiority of American free enterprise over the Soviet planned economy. One could argue that it did just that. What it did for me was to provide a pantheon of heroes—both American and Soviet—and a gripping narrative of achievement of seemingly impossible goals. That the first image of the whole Earth from space and the beginnings of the modern environmental movement both happened at this time is no coincidence. My treasured science fiction stories were playing out in real time.

In the summer of 1969, I was working as a deckhand on a Mississippi River towboat between my freshman and sophomore years in college. I had made the mistake of sharing my career goals, so I was “Professor” to all. The boat was tied up at the home office in Greenville, Mississippi for maintenance, and I was the only person aboard who believed the moon landing was real. As one exasperated hand explained to me (his language has been modified for a general audience): “Look, Professor. I can’t get a TV signal from New York City. How am I going to get one from the moon?” I learned a lesson then that I would often forget over the years—you can’t argue with logic. You just have to careful about your premises.

I often wished Neil Armstrong were more forthcoming about his feelings concerning his great achievement. But when I think about the emotional gushers coming from his fellow moonwalker Buzz Aldrin, I agree with his other crewmate Michael Collins: “I can’t offhand think of a better choice to be the first man on the moon.”

Armstrong’s family had a beautiful statement on his death, and I can’t think of any better way to close this post:

“While we mourn the loss of a very good man, we also celebrate his remarkable life and hope that it serves as an example to young people around the world to work hard to make their dreams come true, to be willing to explore and push the limits, and to selflessly serve a cause greater than themselves.

“For those who may ask what they can do to honor Neil, we have a simple request: Honor his example of service, accomplishment and modesty, and the next time you walk outside on a clear night and see the moon smiling down at you, think of Neil Armstrong and give him a wink.”

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Curiosity’s Communication With Earth

You may have read that the Curiosity Mars rover is communicating with Earth mostly by relaying data through one of the spacecraft orbiting Mars, and wondered why that is so. Even if you haven’t wondered, I have! Hence this post.

There are multiple reasons, of course, but the most important one is energy conservation. Even with the nuclear power pack that Curiosity carries, there are at most around 125 watts of electrical power available to drive the rover and to operate its scientific instruments. And even though the rover has a high-gain (meaning directional) antenna that can be aimed at Earth, it doesn’t have enough power to transmit data at a very high rate. If we devoted enough power to “yelling” loudly enough to be heard on Earth, we would have correspondingly less power available for other tasks. Earth, after all, is currently over 158 million miles (255 million kilometers) away! But the main orbiting relay station, the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), can pass over the orbiter as closely as 200 miles (320 km). Curiosity can send data at rates up to 2 megabits per second to the MRO without having to consume so much power. For comparison, when I just now tested my cable modem’s upload speed, it clocked in at 1.46 megabits per second.
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How To Satisfy Your Curiosity About Curiosity

Quote: “This is just insane. The Internet is still totally exploding over what happened…” Rather than try to recap everything, I’m just going to point you to the two best web sources: the Curiosity site itself, and Emily Lakdawalla’s blog, the best source of information about solar system spacecraft there is. One note: there is a low-resolution “movie” of the last few minutes of the descent. Once communications gear up to faster data transfer rates, there will be a 4.5 frames per second HD movie of this. Marvels abound!

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Curiosity on Mars–One Way or the Other

In just a few more days, the largest and most complex spacecraft ever to land on Mars will either have six wheels on the ground or will be a smoking billion-dollar crater. I’ve posted this video before, but it’s cool enough for a repeat:

The exact time of touchdown on Mars will be 1:31 a.m. EDT on Monday morning, August 6th, plus or minus a minute or two. This is, as NASA notes, the “Earth-received” time which accounts for the one-way light travel time of seven minutes between the two planets. It will most likely be broadcast on the cable news networks (really—what else is there at 1:30 a.m.), but you can watch live streaming at these sites:

NASA TV: http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html

JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Ustream HD: http://www.ustream.tv/NASAJPL2

What will you see? A bunch of engineers sitting in front of computer screens, looking tense, and then either giving each other high fives or looking very grim. The rover itself will undergo a careful checkout procedure before it begins sending back scientific data—and pictures.

Here is where it is headed: Gale crater, with a central mountain showing multiple layers of rock. Curiosity is powerful enough to travel to and to climb that mountain. The ellipse shows the target landing area; it is 20 by 7 kilometers (12 by 4 miles). This after a journey of more than 350 million miles! The first image shows the crater with the original landing ellipse, the second with both the old and the new, smaller ellipse resulting from mid-course fine tuning of the trajectory.
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