Nearly Perfect Prediction!

There are some stages I watch come to an end and hope the winning cyclist can give just a tiny bit more effort in the last kilometer.  Check out the comparison between Bauke Mollema’s winning time with our prediction for today’s Stage 15.

  • Stage 15:  4h 41′ 47″ (actual), 4h 41′ 26″ (prediction), 00′ 21″ fast (-0.12% error)

Come on, Bauke!  Just 21 seconds faster today and we reach perfection.  He won by 19 seconds, so he didn’t need to rush the final few hundred meters.  But I’ll definitely take today’s result.   Missing a nearly five-hour stage by 21 seconds is a lot of fun!  I’m glad I didn’t make the mistake I made with yesterday’s prediction and alter power output.  Our model did its thing today.

Chris Froome remains in yellow.  Nairo Quintana, who I loved watching battle Froome in the mountains in 2015’s Tour de France, slipped to #11 in the overall classification, more than six minutes behind Froome.

Tomorrow is a rest day.  Teams will plot strategies for the next day’s flat stage and the two, grueling stages in the French Alps that follow.  I’ll post our prediction for Stage 16 tomorrow.

I am Professor of Physics at Lynchburg College and author of Gold Medal Physics: The Science of Sports.

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